TOD — ON Battlemap 2026-04-17

High-Impact News

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Tape Story

Today's RTH gapped 228pts on the Iran/Hormuz-open catalyst, drove to 26884.75, and closed strong at 26827.5 — but CVD diverged bearishly at the high with MaxNegDelta concentrated at 26840, exactly where price sits entering tonight's ON session. The overnight hinges on whether bulls defend the 26779-26791 VWAP/MaxPosDelta zone on any ASIA pullback, or whether the RTH High distribution at 26840-26885 causes a deeper flush to the ShiftZone control band at 26713.

Regime & Bias

▲

BULLS

STRONG

BULL_STRONG regime with four consecutive higher highs and higher lows; today's massive gap-up on Iran/Hormuz news accelerated the trend and CVD net was +2058 (heavily buyer-dominated). However, CVD diverged bearishly at the RTH High (26884.75) with the session's heaviest selling cluster (-697 delta) at 26840 — price is currently sitting at supply. The regime remains bullish above ShiftZone_SellersToBuyers (26713) but the short-term tension is between VWAP support (26791) and RTH High resistance (26884.75).

ON IB + h20 both close UP at 21:00 ET (on_synapse_001 90%+ ASIA bullish) Price holds above RTH VWAP (26791) in ASIA session CVD stays positive through ASIA; no fresh distribution at 26840 zone London h03 closes UP (on_synapse_004 — 76% London direction signal) Acceptance below ShiftZone_BuyersToSellers (26672) — daily control structure fails ON IB + h20 both close DOWN — ASIA bearish; stand aside all long setups

RTH Session

+43 pts BULL (26,441 → 26,484.25)

RTH Close vs POC

26,484.25 — Above POC

Session Narrative

RANGE DAY

POC Migration

Poc Migrating Higher

Multi-Day Structure

BULL STRONG

Level Map

26,745.75

ONH

Overnight High

26,732.25

KL18

Key Level

26,720

KL1

Key Level

26,684.50

KL8

Key Level

26,665.75

KL19

Key Level

26,653.50

KL7

Key Level

26,626.50

KL24

Key Level

26,587.75

KL6

Key Level

26,577.75

KL15

Key Level

26,572.50

KL22+KL25

Key Level

26,564

PDH (RTH)+WT

Prior Day High (RTH)

26,558.50

KL21

Key Level

26,550.50

KL20

Key Level

26,521.50

VAH (RTH)

Prior Value Area High (RTH)

26,480

POC (RTH)+ON

Prior RTH POC

26,455–26,456.50

Demand

Demand Zone

26,440

ONL

Overnight Low

26,431.50

ΔClust

Delta Cluster

26,397.50

Max+Δ+B→S

Max Pos Delta

26,380.25

VAL (RTH)+S→

Prior Value Area Low (RTH)

26,373.50

Max-Δ

Max Neg Delta

26,362.75

ΔClust

Delta Cluster

26,275.50

PDL (RTH)

Prior Day Low (RTH)

25,658.50–25,665.25

Demand

Demand Zone

25,325–25,330

Demand

Demand Zone

25,269.75

PW HI (RTH)

Prior Week High (RTH)

25,160

WTD LO (RTH)

Week-to-Date Low (RTH)

23,941.50

PW LO (RTH)

Prior Week Low (RTH)

RTH Summary

High 26564.0

Low 26275.5

Close 26484.25

Range 288pts

POC 26480.0

VAH / VAL 26521.5 / 26380.25

RTH Session Context

Close vs Value Area Close Inside Value

VA Migration Va Migrating Higher

Session Narrative

Range Day

Multi-Day Structure

Thu

+0.7%

Mon

+1.3%

Tue

+1.3%

Wed

+1.3%

Thu

+0.2%

Value Area

Prior VAH 26,521.50

Prior VAL 26,380.25

VA Migration Va Migrating Higher

Setups

▲ LONG

MaxPosDelta / RTH VWAP Confluence Long — ASIA Pullback (on_synapse_001 Conditional)

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Entry Zone

26779-26793

Trigger

DownBar+PosDelta on first test of the 26779-26793 zone (MaxPosDelta 26776.5 converging with RTH VWAP 26791); absorption building at bid with CVD flattening or turning positive. ACTIVATE ONLY after ON IB + h20 both close UP at 21:00 ET (on_synapse_001 — 90%+ ASIA UP confidence). Do not enter before 21:00 ET.

Targets

26,840 →26,885

Watch Zone

👁 Alert: 26,769 – 26,803

Risk / Reward

R:R 1.5 : 1 Stop: 26,750

Invalidation

Acceptance below 26750 on 2+ consecutive 5-min closes with negative CVD — VWAP has failed and the MaxPosDelta zone is not holding. Also void if ON IB closes DOWN (bullish ASIA thesis cancelled — stand aside, no entry before next IB+h20 signal).

▼ SHORT

MaxNegDelta Zone Short — cvd_div_001 Hard Gate (RTH High Distribution, ON Session)

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Entry Zone

26836-26848

Trigger

Price rallies into the 26836-26848 zone (MaxNegDelta -697 at 26840 from today's RTH — heaviest selling cluster in the session) approaching from below (rallying into resistance = correct SHORT direction). HARD GATE: require fresh cvd_div_001 signal at entry bar in ON session — CVD must be positive or rising while price is at/above 26836, then roll flat/negative (divergence confirming distribution). Do NOT enter on a declining CVD bar; wait for the divergence to print. CVD_vs_High was DIVERGED in today's RTH DaySummary — distribution at this level is already confirmed; ON session needs fresh confirmation.

Targets

26,791 →26,713

Watch Zone

👁 Alert: 26,826 – 26,858

Risk / Reward

R:R 1.2 : 1 Stop: 26,885

Invalidation

cvd_div_001 does NOT print at entry bar — skip, do not force. Acceptance above RTH High (26884.75) on 2+ consecutive 5-min closes with positive delta — buyers have broken through and distribution has failed. If price reaches RTH High before returning to 26836, fresh assessment required.

▲ LONG

ShiftZone Sellers-Lost-Control Long — ASIA Deep Flush (on_synapse_002 Conditional)

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Entry Zone

26707-26720

Trigger

Price flushes to the 26707-26720 zone (ShiftZone_SellersToBuyers: 26713.75 — the exact price where sellers lost control to buyers during today's RTH). Require DownBar+PosDelta on first touch with stacked buy imbalances at bid; CVD must be declining into the level then reverse positive (bullish absorption). ACTIVATE only after ON IB + midnight (h00) agree UP at 01:00 ET (on_synapse_002 — 90-92% ASIA directional edge). First touch only; correct approach direction is from ABOVE (selling into support).

Targets

26,786 →26,840

Watch Zone

👁 Alert: 26,697 – 26,730

Risk / Reward

R:R 1.7 : 1 Stop: 26,672

Invalidation

Acceptance below ShiftZone_BuyersToSellers (26672) on 2+ consecutive 5-min closes — the day's control structure has collapsed and this is no longer a pullback but a trend reversal. Also void if ON IB closes DOWN at 18:00-18:59 and h20 (21:00) confirms DOWN — bearish ASIA bias means longs at any level are counter-trend; stand aside until midnight confirmation.

Gameplan Scenarios

If / Then

5 scenarios

Scenario	Trigger	Expectation	Action
Bull Continuation	ASIA holds above 26791 (VWAP), ON IB + h20 confirm UP at 21:00 ET, price absorbs at MaxNegDelta (26840) and pushes through RTH High (26884.75) in London.	Setup 7 triggers on VWAP pullback in ASIA (T2 at RTH High 26885); London extends to 27000+ as trapped shorts above RTH High fuel continuation.	Enter Setup 7 after 21:00 ET on first VWAP touch with absorption; hold runner to 26885. If London clears RTH High, the 26879-26893 zone becomes fresh support for an additional long entry.
Range Day	ASIA oscillates between 26791 (VWAP) and 26840 (MaxNegDelta) without resolving either direction; London stays inside ASIA range.	ON range 80-120pts, price bound between 26750 and 26885. Setup 7 and 8 both trigger but T1s are reached without T2 extension.	Take T1 aggressively on both setups; do not hold runners in choppy ON. Wait for RTH IB direction to establish context for the next session.
Bear / Liquidation	Risk-off news or Iran ceasefire reversal causes ASIA flush below VWAP (26791), through ShiftZone (26713), testing RTH Low (26629.5).	Setup 9 triggers at ShiftZone (26707-26720); if CVD diverges bullishly at that level, expect bounce to 26786 (T1). Below 26629 = extended flush toward ON_VAH (26592).	Enter Setup 9 on first ShiftZone touch with DownBar+PosDelta after IB+midnight agree UP; hard stop at 26672 (ShiftZone_BuyersToSellers). No shorts below 26713 without fresh cvd_div_001.
Trap & Reverse	London pushes above RTH High (26884.75) in a stop-run, triggers buy orders, then sharply reverses back below 26840 on negative delta.	False breakout above RTH High; if Setup 8 was entered on the push to 26836-26848 with fresh cvd_div_001, the trade has already triggered; target VWAP (26791) and ShiftZone (26713) in sequence.	If Setup 8 is active and price pushes above 26858 (watch_high), re-evaluate — if CVD stays negative despite higher price, hold short. If CVD goes positive on the push, exit immediately.
Extreme Expansion	Iran deal finalized overnight or second major bullish catalyst drives NQ through 27000 before London session ends.	Setup 7 T2 (26885) blown through; price extends to 27000+. Setup 8 short is never triggered or stops out quickly at RTH High (26885).	On Setup 7, trail runner stop to VWAP (26791) after T1 hit; do not add above 26885. For Setup 8, honor hard stop at 26885 immediately — do not fight extreme expansion.

⛔

Stand Down

Stand aside all setups if ON IB closes DOWN and h20 confirms DOWN at 21:00 ET — the bullish ASIA thesis is invalidated and no long entries should be taken before the next IB+midnight or IB+h20 signal.

Key Invalidations

Bull Invalidation

26,629.50

RTH Low — acceptance below ends today's bullish momentum and signals the gap-up was rejected.

Bear Invalidation

26,885

RTH High — clean break and acceptance above flips to support and opens a run toward 27000+.

Extreme Upside

27,100

200pt extension above RTH High — fade only with fresh cvd_div_001 (4+ filters required; CVD must diverge bearishly at that level).

Extreme Downside

26,440

Tonight's ON Low (26440 from today's session data) — acceptance below collapses the full week's structure.